Book Notes – Fooled By Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Amazon Link

Read Jan 2016. Review June 2016.

This review is late. I incorrectly assumed I wrote down my thoughts on this book some time ago. I can’t believe I didn’t.

It’s not as thoughtful a review as I would like to write. The information has had time to distill.

I listened to this as an audiobook. I’ve suggested the same to many. It’s approachable, funny and will wreck your world view (in a good way). I will be re-reading on paper this year.

To know me, to do business with me, to have a deep conversation with me, one must read this book.

This is the most influential book I’ve read in my adult life. It’s the first in a trilogy that, frankly, I haven’t enjoyed as much. It’s an entry point into a very different way of thinking.

You will find yourself thinking about Nero. It introduced me to idea of the random event. The thing that happens that makes or breaks people. In today’s culture we Idolize those for whom the random event leads to positives. These are the venture capitalists who invest in a company that sells for $1B three years later. Or the CEOs who do the same. Or the traders who make the trade of a lifetime.

We very rarely read about those who played in the fire and got burned.

But the concept that had the most impact hit me at a time when I was primed to receive it. It introduces the idea of distilled vs undistilled information. The fact that the flywheel that makes media businesses work is earning more eyes. The smartest way to earn more eyes is to create a dependency on information. The smartest way to do that is to prompt you with facts that, when considered objectively, don’t actually mean anything. Or with like notifications or whatever.

It led me on a journey that led to, among many things, this blog post.

We ascribe skill to the successful. And there is skill. But the role of the rare event is never considered.

I wrote this in an email to friends:

If you haven’t read Taleb’s Fooled by Randomness, you should. It is the book you need to have read to experience this cycle with open eyes. The book changed my life. It’s a great audiobook.

Most people have a bias to follow the crowd. And because some have won big at roulette before, and of course they are smarter than most people, they assume they will win and never lose the all-in bet.

This book completely changed my life. It is very approachable. Taleb’s The Black Swan and Antifragile build on it. I like Antifragile. It’s in my book pile. I read half of The Black Swan and put it down. It serves as a point maker for FBR and is duplicative.

This book kicked off an exploration into the topic of internal vs external orientation which has led me in a lot of unplanned directions. I will be writing about these directions..

Book Notes – The Power of Habit by Charles Duhigg

Amazon Link

Notes from Audiobook listening:

Keystone habits are things like a regular gym routine. Around that, if executed well, healthy eating, less smoking, less drinking occur.

YMCA example of discovering that the most powerful element of stickiness to a healthy exercise routine was feeling that the gym was a place you saw friends. YMCA built a small group program.

Church pastor did something similar, church exploded. It wasn’t about the Sunday sermon but what happened during the week with small groups.

Organizational habits can be accidental and negative. Example of nurses keeping a secret whiteboard with doctors names who listened, didn’t and those who exploded when someone questioned them. Led to a lot of problems.

Paul O’Neil and Alcoa. Everything was about safety. When it counted, he demonstrated that. When an exec didn’t report an accident, even a small one, he looked into it and fired the exec. This focus broke down communication barriers and led to huge changes in innovation in the organization. To maximize safety old barriers of communication had to be broken. Front line employees had to speak to senior managers to get info to them fast. Everything was about safety. The halo effect was massive. Completely changed the company.

Habit: Trigger, action, reward. Focusing on the action is critical in breaking down habit change.

Habits break decision capability. Similar to How We Decide, you need to focus on what people react to subconsciously. Such as Febreeze and toothpaste realizing smell and taste were the most important rewards. Febreeze was supposed to eliminate odor, no one wanted it. Once it had a fresh smell, it took off. Toothpaste doesn’t need minty flavor. But that reward is something people crave.

Focus on keystone habits to effect the most positive change. Focus on rewards to make habits sticky.

The 48 Laws of Power by Robert Greene

Feb 2016

Amazon Link

Law 1 –Never Outshine The Master

Always make those who are above you in rank and position feel comfortable. Make them feel brilliant and powerful when opportunities arise. Even if you get the sense that your master loves you, don’t think that you can do whatever you wish. All higher ups want to appear intelligent, in control, and superior to those around them. Be cautious of your efforts to impress those above you as you don’t want to overstep your bounds to illicit insecurity of any sort. Your efforts may backfire and attract steep consequences.

“When it comes to power, outshining the master is perhaps the worst mistake of all.” – Robert Greene (R.G.)

“Never take your position for granted and never let any favors you receive go to your head.” – R.G.

Law 2 –Never Put Too Much Trust In Friends, Learn How To Use Enemies

Your friends will betray you quicker than your allies and enemies. Enemies are more loyal than friends because they have much more to prove. Although it’s easy to recruit friends in a time of need, you often don’t know who your real friends are. This is because the nature of friendship yields many pleasantries, but these acts may not be sincere. Friend or foe, develop the ability to judge who is the best to further your agenda. Keep friends as friends, but work with those who are intelligent and skilled. Never let your enemies upset or distress you because it’s better to know who your enemies are than not.

“Your enemies, on the other hand, are an untapped gold mine that you must learn to exploit.” – R.G.

Law 3 –Conceal Your Intentions

People trust appearances. Keep people guessing about your real intentions so that they can’t prepare a defense or anticipate your next move. If anything, lead them down the wrong path so by the time they realize your intentions it will be too late. Employ false sincerity and send ambiguous signals to disguise your true intentions. Honesty does more harm than good because it’s likely to offend people thus it’s much wiser to tailor your words.

“Deception is always the best strategy, but the best deceptions require a screen of smoke to distract people’s attention from your real purpose.” – R.G.

Law 4 –Always Say Less Than Necessary

The more you say, the more likely you are to say something foolish and appear not in control. Powerful people influence and intimidate others by saying less. As a result, the less you say, the more powerful you appear because people won’t be able to decipher your true intentions. It’s a game of who speaks the least wins. Conversely, there are times when it’s unwise to remain silent because it can arouse suspicion.

“A person who cannot control his words shows that he cannot control himself, and is unworthy of respect.” – R.G.

Law 5 –So Much Depends On Reputation – Guard It With Your Life

One’s reputation is the basis of power and influence. With a solid reputation, you can get the upper hand, but without, you’re in a position of weakness. Make your reputation unquestionable while learning how to destroy others with weaknesses. Appearances in social circles and in public are very important. Be very mindful of how you appear in theses environments. In the beginning, you must establish and develop a sound reputation that people can know you by. Take the high road when others try to destroy your reputation. Furthermore, don’t let people assign a reputation to you by not caring. Own your reputation and mark.

“A solid reputation increases your presence and exaggerates your strengths without your having to spend much energy. It can also create an aura around you that will instill respect, even fear.” – R.G.

Law 6 –Court Attention At All Cost

Focus on attracting attention and standing out from the crowd because what isn’t seen isn’t heard. Do anything to make yourself appear larger than life, but never appear overly greedy for the spotlight. The latter can send signals of insecurity. Negative attention is better than being ignored, and attracting enough attention produces a special legitimacy. Keep an air of mystery about yourself to keep people guessing, but don’t let it turn into a reputation for deceit. Allow your sense of mystery to be playful and unthreatening.

Law 7 –Get Others To Do The Work, But Always Take Credit

Use the knowledge and efforts of others to further your own agenda. This will save you precious time and energy while making you appear a cut above the rest. If you prefer to do everything yourself, you won’t get far. Avoid doing things that you can have others do. Take credit and ensure others don’t take credit from you or piggyback your hard work. Keep in mind that there are times when taking credit in unwise such as taking credit away from someone above you in rank or position.

Law 8 –Make Other People Come To You – Use Bait If Necessary

Allow people to come to you before making the first move. When they come to you, this puts you in a position to control the situation while wearing them out. Manipulation is a dangerous game and once someone suspects he’s being manipulated, it becomes harder to control him. Thus, always create the illusion that the other person is in control. The one who has control has power. Sometimes it makes sense to go to the other person. When doing so, force the issue and take the lead.

Law 9 –Win Through Your Actions, Never Through Argument

It’s much more powerful to gain alignment through action than argument. Argument does nothing but illicit resentment and ill will. The benefits of winning through action are twofold: no one gets offended and your point gets proven. Concerning power, you must learn to evaluate the long-term affects your actions have on people. Verbal arguments make sense only when you need to cover your tracks and deflect from a lie. Choose your battles wisely.

Law 10 –Infection: Avoid The Unhappy and Unlucky

The people you choose to associate with is critical. Associate with happy and fortunate people and shun those who are miserable and unfortunate. Associate with people who attract happiness, good cheer, and intelligence. Associating with people who are full of misery will lead to your own demise. Make no time for these people. When you suspect that you’re in the presence of an infector, distance yourself and leave well enough alone.

Law 11 –Learn To Keep People Dependent On You

To maintain your freedom and control, have people rely on you. Don’t ever teach them enough so that they don’t need you. The ultimate power is to get people to fulfill your commands, and you achieve this by creating dependent relationships. Do not value the idea of independence. Power involves at least two people and you will always need allies and pawns to serve you. The independent and self-reliant person can come and go, but he has no power.

“The completely independent man would live in a cabin in the woods – he would have the freedom to come and go as he pleased, but he would have no power.” – R.G.

Law 12 –Use Selective Honesty and Generosity to Disarm Your Victim

Honesty and generosity brings down the guards of others. Using these tools as powerful distractions provides you with the time and space to do something they won’t notice. Taking something from someone is dangerous, even for the mighty, as the victim will no doubt plot his revenge. It’s dangerous to be upfront about what you need because this can attract resentment of your neediness. Learn to give before you take as it takes the bite out of future requests. Giving can take many forms: a gift, generous act, favor, or honest admission.

Law 13 –When Asking For Help, Appeal To People’s Self-Interest, Never To Their Mercy or Gratitude

In your quest for power, you’ll constantly be asking others, more powerful than you, for help. If you’re looking for assistance, appeal to a person’s self-interest. Fulfillment of his self-interest will excite him to participate. Reminders of past good deeds are fruitless as people are generally not interested in others’ needs. There’s an art to asking for help that depends on your ability to read and understand people. Understand what people need, what would excite them, and what their interests are. However, some people get off on others asking them for help without appealing to their self-interests. In these cases, give them the opportunity for self-satisfaction.

Law 14 –Pose As A Friend, Work As A Spy

Keeping tabs on your rivals and competitors is critical. You must obtain valuable information on your own or through other sources. Learn how to probe for secrets and hidden agendas while being discreet. A friendly demeanor allows for this. During social gatherings and other encounters pay close attention to others. People have their guards down in these arenas allowing for valuable information to surface. Take caution and care as you probe as you don’t want people to end up avoiding you. Test people on certain acts to determine their loyalty. With this knowledge you can better understand their actions for the future. Just the same, be prepared for people to spy on you.

Law 15 –Crush Your Enemy Totally

Crush your enemy completely in body and in spirit. Show no mercy and crush them as they would crush you. Give them no options and know that negotiating leads to comprise. If you allow your enemies to stick around, they will seek revenge and look to rid you of your power. If you can make your enemies destroy themselves then allow for this to happen.

Law 16 –Use Absence to Increase Respect and Honor

Ample supply drives prices down while scarcity drives prices up. Your presence and availability influence your perceived value. By making yourself less accessible, you increase the value of your presence. Although a strong presence increases value, too much presence decreases value and you become a habit of sorts. People will come to disrespect you more and more. Extend the law of scarcity to your own skills by making what you have to offer rare yet valuable.

“No matter how hard you try to be different, subtly, without your knowing why, people respect you less and less. At the right moment you must learn to withdraw yourself before they unconsciously push you away. It is a game of hide-and-seek.” – R.G.

Law 17 –Keep Others In Suspended Terror: Cultivate An Air Of Unpredictability

Predictability gives others a sense of control over you. Conversely, unpredictability will force others to continually attempt to figure out your next moves. When people can’t figure out your next moves, they’re kept in a state of terror, confusion, and uncertainty. People are always trying to understand the other’s motives and patterns of behavior. Changing up your patterns on a daily basis will stimulate interest in you and keep people guessing. The more unpredictable you are, the more respect you’ll garner. Predictability can serve you well, when you have an ulterior motive underlying it.

Law 18 –Do Not Build Fortresses To Protect Yourself – Isolation Is Dangerous

Everyone has to protect themselves and although isolation may seem like a good idea, it exposes you to greater danger. For instance, it cuts you off from getting valuable information and it makes you an easy target. It’s better to be among people because a crowd will shield you from your enemies. Power depends on social interactions so isolation works contrary to this. To become powerful you must position yourself at the center of activity. All activity should revolve around you and you should be aware of what’s happening around you. Anything less could diminish your information sources and maneuverability.

Law 19 –Know Who You’re Dealing With – Do Not Offend The Wrong Person

You can’t ever assume that everyone will react to your strategies in the same way. Choose your opponents and victims carefully and never offend or deceive the wrong person. If you do offend the wrong person, he will spend his entire life seeking revenge. The ability to read people and know whom you’re dealing with is an extremely important power seeking skill. Without it, you will offend and waste your time on the wrong people. When it comes to assessing people, never trust your instincts and appearances. Rely only on facts.

Law 20 –Do Not Commit To Anyone

Do not commit to any side, cause or become obligated to anyone. Stay obligated to only yourself. The moment you commit, you’re obtainable and the magic is gone. Your independence will enable you to position people against one another while making them pursue you. Once you are possessed by others, you lose power over them. Stay aloof and you’ll gain the power that comes from their attention and desires. You must master your emotions and gain self-control. Do not succumb to the emotional volatility and problems of others. On the other hand, seem interested in their problems while inwardly maintaining your energy, sanity, and distance.

Law 21 –Play A Sucker To Catch A Sucker – Seem Dumber That Your Mark

No one likes to feel dumber than the next person so the trick is to make others feel smarter than you. Once convinced, they’ll never suspect that you have hidden motives. It’s critical to never insult someone’s intelligence. To reveal your true intelligence rarely pays so you should develop a habit of downplaying it. This will give you unsuspecting power because your opponent will be disarmed. If someone comes to learn how smart you are, he will admire you more for being discreet about it.

Law 22 –Use The Surrender Tactic: Transform Weakness Into Power

When you’re weaker, surrender instead. This will give you time to recover and allow your opponents power to wane. Don’t give them the satisfaction of beating you. What gets us into trouble is our overreaction to activities by our rivals. Next time someone pushes you, don’t react, but yield instead. Turn the other cheek as this often neutralizes behavior. The surrender tactic is to appear as though you have yielded on the outside, but on the inside, you stay firm and plan your next moves.

“If you run away or fight back, in the long run you cannot win. If you surrender, you will almost always emerge victorious.” – R.G.

Law 23 –Concentrate Your Forces

Manage your resources and mind by keeping them concentrated and focused. Single-mindedness of purpose and complete concentration will overwhelm your enemy every time. Spreading yourself out, or too thinly, is a foolish activity. Latch onto a single and appropriate source of power i.e. a person. Conversely, tying yourself to one person can be dangerous. If that person leaves, dies or falls from grace, you will suffer.

“It is a corollary of the law of concentration, however, that much energy is saved, and more power is attained, by affixing yourself to a single, appropriate source of power.” – R.G.

Law 24 –Play The Perfect Courtier

The self-seeker thrives in a world where everything is about power and politics. If you apply these laws, there’s no limit to how far you can rise.

Laws of Court Politics

  • Avoid ostentation
  • Practice nonchalance
  • Be frugal with flattery
  • Arrange to be noticed
  • Alter your style and language according to the person you’re dealing with
  • Never be the bearer of bad news
  • Never affect friendliness and intimacy with your master
  • Never criticize those above you directly
  • Be frugal in asking those above you for favors
  • Never joke about appearances or taste
  • Do not be the court cynic
  • Be self-observant
  • Master your emotions
  • Fit in the spirit of the times
  • Be a source of pleasure

Law 25 –Recreate Yourself

Do not accept the roles that society has assigned you. The character you are born with doesn’t have to remain. You must recreate and own your identity to one that commands attention and that is interesting. Remake yourself into a person of power. The first step in the process of self-creation is self-awareness. Being aware of yourself leads to change in appearance and emotions. Develop the ability to play different roles and become adaptable as the moment requires.

Working on yourself like clay should be one of your greatest and most pleasurable life tasks.” – R.G.


Law 26 –Keep Your Hands Clean

It’s imperative that you’re seen as someone with a clean record. Maintain this appearance by using scapegoats and blaming others. It’s human to look at one’s own mistakes, guilt or crime, but get in the practice of projecting these onto someone else or some object. You may lose a friend, but it’s more important to hide your mistakes. You can always replace a friend.

You may think that appearing to work harder than everyone else projects power, but it implies weakness. Why are you working so hard, if you’re so powerful? Perhaps you have to apply more effort or you don’t know how to delegate. The truly powerful appear to work effortlessly and never seem to be in a hurry.

Law 27 –Play On People’s Need To Believe To Create A Cultlike Following

People have an overwhelming desire to believe in something. Become their belief by offering them a cause or faith to believe in. Keep your words vague, but full of promise and hope. Give your followers rituals to perform and ask them to make sacrifices on your behalf. Your new belief system will then bring you power.

Create a cult in five easy steps:

  1. Keep it vague; keep it simple
  2. Emphasize the visual and the sensual over the intellectual
  3. Borrow the forms of organized religion to structure the group
  4. Disguise your source of income
  5. Set up an “us versus them” dynamic

Law 28 –Enter Action With Boldness

Don’t attempt a course of action you are unsure of. Your doubts will negatively impact your execution. Shyness is dangerous so it’s better to enter an action with boldness. If shyness has taken root, eliminate it. Boldness can make people feel at ease because it highlights confidence and self-awareness. Everyone admires those who are bold and no one honors the timid. Most of us want to avoid tension, confrontation, and conflict because we want to be liked by everyone. Many of us contemplate bold actions, but only a few of us act on them. The people who don’t act are terrified of what others might think.

Law 29 –Plan All The Way To The End

Plan all the way to the end while taking into account as many variables and exceptions as possible. Think far into the future and you will not be overwhelmed by circumstances. Most people are too imprisoned by the present to plan with any real foresight. Any plans that they do have are vague and based on imagination, not reality. The ability to overcome the present by envisioning and planning your future leads to power. The power comes from no longer being tempted by emotion, distraction or desire to improvise. You will see the ending and you won’t tolerate any deviations.

“They may believe they are thinking all the way to the end, but they are really only focusing on the happy ending, and deluding themselves by the strength of their desire.” – R.G.

Law 30 –Make Your Accomplishments Seem Effortless

Your efforts must appear natural and easy. People will think you have more to offer with more effort, and no one will be able to gauge your true potential. All the hard work and practice that goes into your excellence must be concealed. The more mysterious your actions appear, the more awesome your powers seem. You’ll appear as the only one who can do what you do portraying exclusivity. Avoid the temptation of working hard because it only raises doubt and questions. Teach no one your tricks as they will be used against you. Never show your work until it is complete and never take yourself too seriously.

Law 31 –Control The Options: Get Others To Play With The Cards You Deal

The best deception is the one where you make it appear as though others are in control when in fact you are. Give people self-serving options that benefit you in the end. When examined closely, the choices we have in elections and jobs are actually limited. They’re really a choice between option A and B, not C through Z. A couple options offered usually do the trick on most people who consider nothing more. That said, the idea of “unlimited options” sounds promising, but so many options would only paralyze and confuse us. Our limited range of options comforts us. As a result, providing a narrow range of choices should always be part of your arsenal.

“Words like “freedom”, “options” and “choice” evoke a power of possibility far beyond the reality of the benefits they entail.” – R.G.

Law 32 –Play To People’s Fantasies

Never appeal to truth or reality unless you’re prepared for the anger that will follow them. People flock to manufactured romance and fantasy. Tap into the fantasies of the masses that will release them from their imprisonment, but keep the fantasies vague and ungraspable. The person who can create and spin fantasy out of oppression will amass untold power. Let’s examine a few realties and fantasies that have remained constant:

  • Fantasy: A sudden transformation will bring a total change in one’s fortunes, bypassing work, luck, self-sacrifice, and time in one fantastic stroke.
  • Reality: Change is slow and gradual. It requires hard work, a bit of luck, a fair amount of self-sacrifice, and a lot of patience.
  • Fantasy: We can enter a totally new world with different codes and the promise of adventure.
  • Reality: The social realm has hard-set codes and boundaries. We understand these limits and know that we have to move within the same familiar circles, day in and day out.
  • Fantasy: People can come together in a mystical union of souls.
  • Reality: Society is fragmented and full of conflict.
  • Fantasy: A sudden reversal of this intolerable fact.
  • Reality: The dead cannot be brought back and the past cannot be changed.

Law 33 –Discover Each Man’s Thumbscrew

Everyone has a weakness likely tied to an insecurity, emotional need, or pleasure. Once you discover the other’s weakness, you can use it to your advantage. Don’t take anything such as appearances at face value, look deeper. In searching for a person’s weakness consider the following methods:

  • Pay attention to gestures and unconscious signals
  • Learn about their childhoods
  • Look for contrasts in their appearances “the uptight are often screaming for adventure”
  • Find the weak link in their network
  • Fill their void
  • Feed on uncontrollable emotions

Law 34 –Be Royal In Your Own Fashion: Act Like A King To Be Treated Like One

The way you carry and present yourself will often determine how people treat you. For example, if you want to be treated like a millionaire, dress and act as a millionaire would. If you want to be treated as a commoner then dress and act like one. It’s up to you to determine your own self-worth. Ask for more or less and you will receive the corresponding. If you believe you are destined for great things, your beliefs will radiate outward and great things will come. However, in your greatness never make the mistake of thinking that you can elevate yourself by putting down others.

Law 35 –Master The Art Of Timing

Never seem to be hurried or in a rush as this displays a lack of control and poor time management. Keep an eye out for trends that you can take advantage of. Taking advantage of trends is one way to develop power. On the other hand, appreciate when the time isn’t right to act and only act when the time is right. Time depends on perception which can be altered. Alter your perception of time to open up future opportunities that the fearful and angry close off.

Law 36 –Disdain Things You Cannot Have: Ignoring Them Is The Best Revenge

By acknowledging petty problems you give them legitimacy and credibility. What you do not react to won’t bring you down. The more attention you give to an enemy, the stronger you make him. It’s occasionally best to leave well enough alone. An uncontrollable desire makes you appear weak, unworthy, and pathetic. If there is something you desire but cannot have, show disdain for it. The less interest you demonstrate, the more superior you seem. Furthermore, the more you want something, the more it will elude you.

Law 37 –Create Compelling Spectacles

Put on big spectacles for those around you and use them as distractions to conceal your true agenda. Visual spectacles that tug at people’s emotions are best.

“Words stir up arguments and divisions; images bring people together. They are the quintessential instruments of power.” – R.G.

Law 38 –Think As You Like But Behave Like Others

If you show that you are not with the times with unconventional ideas, people will just think you want attention and they’ll look down at you. It’s much safer to blend in and go with the flow. Much power can come from blending in the short term while changing strategy over the long term. Share your uniqueness with close friends and those who will understand and appreciate it. We all tell lies and hide true feelings because complete freedom of expression is socially impossible.

“Wise and clever people learn early on that they can display conventional behavior and mouth conventional ideas without having to believe in them.” – R.G.

Law 39 –Stir Up Waters To Catch Fish

Always stay calm, collected, and objective as anger and emotion can work against you. Making your enemies angry while you remain calm can work in your favor. Tantrums don’t intimidate or inspire loyalty. They only create doubt and uneasiness about your power and self-control. Angry people usually end up looking ridiculous because their response is hardly ever justified. Additionally, it’s comical to see how sensitive they are and how much they take things personally.

“Petulance is not power, it is a sign of helplessness.” – R.G.

“We have to realize that nothing in the social realm, and in the game of power, is personal. Everyone is caught up in a chain of events that long predates the present moment.” – R.G.

Law 40 –Despise The Free Lunch

What is offered for free is dangerous because it’s usually tied to a trick, hidden obligation, or agenda. The powerful are always mindful of this. What is worth something is worth paying for and by paying your own way, you remain free of gratitude. Keep your money circulating as generosity is a sign and magnet for power. Friends that offer something for free will no doubt claim repayment later. People are essentially lazy and want wealth to fall in their laps rather than work for it. Lure people with advice in exchange for a small sum. Your advice should concern how to make easy money while you employ more deceptions still.

Law 41 –Avoid Stepping Into A Great Man’s Shoes

If you succeed a great person, you will have to achieve much more to outshine him. Don’t get lost in his shadow, but rather establish your own name and identity by changing course. Power depends on the ability to fill a void.

Law 42 –Strike The Shepherd And The Sheep Will Scatter

Problems and troubles can usually be traced to a single person. If you allow these troublemakers to behave as they do, they will influence others. Don’t wait for the problems that can multiple from these people. Neutralize them as soon as possible by isolating or getting rid of them. In every group, one or two people are in power and people will surround themselves around these people.

“Powerful people never waste time. Outwardly they may play along with the game – pretending that power is shared among many – but inwardly they keep their eyes on the inevitable few in the group who hold the cards. These are the ones they work on.” – R.G.

Law 43 –Work On The Hearts And Minds Of Others

You must influence others to work in your direction, and anyone who you seduce becomes your pawn. Appeal to their hearts and self-interest, but ignore thee emotions and minds of others and they will grow to hate you. In order to persuade others, soften them up while breaking them down gently. Keep in mind that power is a numbers game. The more widespread your support, the stronger your power.

Law 44 –Disarm And Infuriate With The Mirror Effect

A mirror reflects reality and it’s also a perfect tool for deception and concealment. When you mirror your enemies’ activities and do as they do, they won’t be able to figure you out.

Mirror Effect tactics:

  • Neutralizing effect: doing what your enemies are doing as to blind them from your true actions
  • Narcissus effect: mimic the other person psychologically, not physically to entrance your enemy
  • Moral effect: do what the other has done to you as in an “eye for an eye”
  • Hallucinatory effect: create a copy of a person, thing, or place to deceive others

Law 45 –Preach The Need For Change, But Never Reform Too Much At Once

The need for change is important, but so too is the need to slowly transition from old to new. People are creatures of habit and tend to want to cling to the past no matter the proposed change. Build your power on a solid foundation of the past rather than trying to cut it out completely.

“Human psychology contains many dualities, one of them being that even while people understand the need for change, knowing how important it is for institutions and individuals to be occasionally renewed, they are also irritated and upset by changes that affect them personally.” – R.G.

Law 46 –Never Appear To Perfect

Appearing perfect and better than others is always dangerous. Occasionally display defects in order to appear more human, relatable, and approachable. After all, envy creates enemies. Once envy is there, display the utmost disdain for those who envy you. Trap them in your envy by displaying your superiority as this will make them squirm.

Law 47 –Do Not Go Past The Mark You Aimed For; In Victory, Learn When To Stop

Never let success go to your head and cause you to be arrogant or overconfident. Going too far will surely attract enemies. When you’ve reached your goal, stop.

“Luck and circumstance always play a role in power. This is inevitable, and actually makes the game more interesting.” – R.G.

Law 48 –Assume Formlessness

Remain adaptable and on the move, and be fluid and formless like water. Do not accept the idea of permanence as nothing is certain or fixed. By taking shape you expose yourself to attack. Power thrives in flexibility, maneuverability, and adaptability.

“The powerful are constantly creating form, and their power comes from the rapidity with which they can change. Their formlessness is in the eye of the enemy who cannot see what they are up to and so has nothing solid to attack.” – R.G.

The Everything Store: Jeff Bezos and the Age of Amazon by Brad Stone

Jan 2016 – Audiobook
Notes transcribed from hand notes I took partially while driving. I pulled off on many exits between LA and Las Vegas to take notes particularly ones that apply to my businesses. Many of those don’t appear here.
This book gives an incredibly detailed account of the history of Amazon. While some aspects may not be fully accurate due to the non-insider position of the author, just the historical account as seen from the outside is interesting. Many of the major turning points in Amazon’s business happened very early when a lot of us weren’t paying attention.
Raw Notes:
Regret Minimization Framework
Hiring Rules. Everyone rates.
1. Strong Hire
2. Inclined to hire
3. Inclined not to hire
4. Stay no hire or 2 or less = no hire
– Be 70s funded AMZN 10K 1999 then total 84k in loans
– Total salary at 64k salary
– Shoestry
Really focus on the role of recommendations. How do they influence category performed.
Costco –
Membership fee – can it affect shipping? (not really, but encourage loyalty.)
– free next day for members
– Costco startup is 14% always
– Members get reusable packages and blender bottles -no cost / no deposit. THINK
– Use volume to squeeze vendors, dare econ of scale. Help desert stores.
Flywheel – from to great
Efficiencies (later skip distributors)
Lower vendor prices
Lower end prices
More access for people
What’s our flywheel? Self reinforcing loop

Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future by Ashlee Vance

Jan 2016 – Audiobook
Amazon Link

This is one of the better biographies I’ve ever read. Not just because of its subject. It’s well written and very, very interesting. I couldn’t recommend it more and it makes for a great audiobook.

What did I learn from this book?

Elon doesn’t care what people think because he’s so committed to the mission. Culture aligns around the mission and the inevitable satisfaction of getting things done. He sets the pace. He pisses people off, but he does it to move things forward and faster. It’s never personal, always justifiable.

Elon at PayPal and Zip2 was an insecure CEO wannabe. By Tesla an SpaceX he was secure and most importantly articulate. Being able to articulate things clearly is a sign of deep understanding. Even if you don’t understand all of the details, if you understand the principles and the process (or at least the next few steps + big unknown + ultimate realization) the you can have the confidence. But you can still get pissed if people talk down to you.

Read religiously. Understand everything.

Start with a hypothesis. Take time to fully understand every piece of how it becomes reality. Learn everything. Then set about tirelessly to build it. Ask questions along the way.

One great engineer is better than three ok engineers.

If you hire amazing people the company’s job is to get shit out of the way. The company culture of SpaceX is about yelling when something is in your way.

Elon doesn’t write anything down. When giving feedback to Tesla engineers he would have a whole weekend of thoughts in his head. Then he would give the feedback from memory and consistently follow-up on it. He didn’t stress about the process.

“We have to figure out how to make the perfect visor” for the model s. And once when looking at the car he saw a seam in the overhead liner where two pieces met. “Every time I see that seam it pierces my heart.”

He figures out in his head what he thinks the realistic timeline is and holds people to it. It’s always impossible. But he does it.

If he doesn’t think you are doing the best work he’ll remove you and “become CEO of the project” and do the work himself. And every time he does that he always gets it done.

Elon didn’t know anything about rockets when he started SpaceX. He simply believed it made sense to make humans an interplanetary species and to do that he could either a) get unlimited money like Jeff Bezos did or b ) build a business that made the ultimate goal possible, one step at a time.

He is short, to the point. Doesn’t suffer fools. He is without remorse in his business dealings. Personally he may not want to have a conversation about your kids but if one of them is sick he’ll move mountains to help them. He will vigoursly help and defend friends. His wrath is brutal.

Taking the time to obsessively learn everything there is to know about a topic sets you apart.

First principles thinking is taking everything down to the very basics of the elements. Challenging assumptions which you can generally prove wrong. If someone explains a process to you, it’s probably a flawed process.

The power of keeping your eye on the end vision and daily breaking it down to get there is critical.

Understand the numbers better than anyone else.

Elon would take the heads off of military brass. He doesn’t care what your status is. He’ll also call suppliers on the weekends. He’s at Tesla on Sat/Suns. He calls suppliers to show them he’s putting in the work, why aren’t they.

Engineers and line workers work in the same place. They always work with each other.

When a part was broken on the island launch pad, SpaceX found an electronics shop in Minn that was open, someone flew to MN to buy the part, then to the island to get it there faster.

Elon calculated that it cost $100k/day to run SpaceX. So when something cost 90k but shaved a day off of waiting time to get something done, it made fiscal sense.

He challenged an engineer to build an avionics system that usually costs $100k from suppliers for $5k. It was impossible but the engineer did it for $3k.

Never assume component costs are realistic. Everyone else, particularly in the established supply chain, smokes their money.

SpaceX and Tesla make almost everything in-house.

TESLA IS A COMPANY THAT BUILT ITS MISSION WITH NO COMPROMISES. They could have done an electric car with a motor backup like the volt, they modeled it, but it would have been a marginal improvement not a product that aligned with the inevitable state of things.

The door handles – Elon and the designer came up with the idea because the early renderings of the Model S didn’t have door handles so they got used to that. Then they had to add them and didn’t want to. Engineers kept adding them, Elon said what the fuck is this. They made it work.

When they initially displayed the Model S it was a Mercedes chassis, no substance, the hood was stuck on with a magnet. But it worked. They needed that event to keep momentum so they made it work. It’s purpose within the organization was clear. People needed to see it to make deposits.

Elon drives communications and PR himself, often only telling PR people about his press calls minutes before.

His wife and assistant both fit in places in his head. He ejected them when they proved they werent needed.

The Paleo Manifesto by John Durant

This book has nothing to do with the Paleo diet. It will teach you about our bodies’ history of consuming food, how sun exposure effects micronutrient production, how industrial food interacts with our systems and so much more. This book kicked off what has now become a life obsession with the science of food and led to a 30-pound weight drop for me.

I buy this book routinely for friends.

Continue reading “The Paleo Manifesto by John Durant”

Anything You Want by Derek Sivers

July 2015
Derek Sivers is someone I respect. He has a talent for distilling ideas into short, pithy statements. He inspired me to create my /now page. This book sounds like self-help by its title but it’s actually a historical perspective of his journey building CD Baby, told in tiny little stories. It’s hilarious and straight to the point. Each chapter takes about 2-3 min to read.
Kindle Highlights
  • Making a company is a great way to improve the world while improving yourself.Location: 67
  • Success comes from persistently improving and inventing, not from persistently promoting what’s not working.Location: 71
  • Make yourself unnecessary to the running of your business.Location: 76
  • Even years later, the desks were just planks of wood on cinder blocks from the hardware store. I made the office computers myself from parts. My well-funded friends would spend $100,000 to buy something that I made myself for $1,000. They did it saying, “We need the very best,” but it didn’t improve anything for the customers.Location: 179
  • It’s counterintuitive, but the way to grow your business is to focus entirely on your existing customers. Just thrill them, and they’ll tell everyone.Location: 185
  • Watch out when anyone (including you) says he wants to do something big, but can’t until he raises money. It usually means the person is more in love with the idea of being big-big-big than with actually doing something useful. For an idea to get big-big-big, it has to be useful. And being useful doesn’t need funding.Location: 187
  • If you want to be useful, you can always start now, with only 1 percent of what you have in your grand vision.Location: 190
  • Starting small puts 100 percent of your energy into actually solving real problems for real people. It gives you a stronger foundation to grow from. It eliminates the friction of big infrastructure and gets right to the point. And it will let you change your plan in an instant, as you’re working closely with those first customers telling you what they really need.Location: 200
  • Awful idea = -1 Weak idea = 1 So-so idea = 5 Good idea = 10 Great idea = 15 Brilliant idea = 20 No execution = $1 Weak execution = $1,000 So-so execution = $10,000 Good execution = $100,000 Great execution = $1,000,000 Brilliant execution = $10,000,000 To make a business, you need to multiply the two components. The most brilliant idea, with no execution, is worth $20. The most brilliant idea takes great execution to be worth $200,000,000.Location: 212
  • Never forget that there are thousands of businesses, like Jim’s Fish Bait Shop in a shack on a beach somewhere, that are doing just fine without corporate formalities.Location: 232
  • When you build your business on serving thousands of customers, not dozens, you don’t have to worry about any one customer leaving or making special demands. If most of your customers love what you do, but one doesn’t, you can just say good-bye and wish him the best, with no hard feelings.Location: 253
  • Have the confidence to know that when your target 1 percent hears you excluding the other 99 percent, the people in that 1 percent will come to you because you’ve shown how much you value them.Location: 267
  • When you’ve asked your customers what would improve your service, has anyone said, “Please fill your website with more advertising”?Location: 274
  • Journalists would ask, “What’s your long-term goal for CD Baby?” I’d say, “I don’t have one. I surpassed my goals long ago. I’m just trying to help musicians with whatever they need today.” So please don’t think you need a huge vision. Just stay focused on helping people today.Location: 310
  • We all grade ourselves by different measures: For some people, it’s as simple as how much money they make. When their net worth is going up, they know they’re doing well. For others, it’s how much money they give. For some, it’s how many people’s lives they can influence for the better. For others, it’s how deeply they can influence just a few people’s lives. For me, it’s how many useful things I create, whether songs, companies, articles, websites, or anything else. If I create something that’s not useful to others, it doesn’t count. But I’m also not interested in doing something useful unless it needs my creative input. How do you grade yourself? It’s important to know in advance, to make sure you’re staying focused on what’s honestly important to you, instead of doing what others think you should.Location: 330
  • That’s the Tao of business: Care about your customers more than about yourself, and you’ll do well.Location: 351
  • It’s another Tao of business: Set up your business like you don’t need the money, and it’ll likely come your way.Location: 357
  • It’s dehumanizing to have thousands of people passing through our computer screens, so we do things we’d never do if those people were sitting next to us. It’s too overwhelming to remember that at the end of every computer is a real person, a lot like you, whose birthday was last week, who has three best friends but nobody to spoon at night, and who is personally affected by what you say.Location: 397
  • Phones were everywhere, so even if the customer service rep was busy, someone in the warehouse could pick up.Location: 436
  • If you bought us a pizza, we’d do any favor you wanted. When we’d tell people about this on the phone, they’d often laugh, not believing we were serious. But we’d get a pizza every few weeks. I’d often hear from musicians later that this was the moment they fell in love with us.Location: 447
  • Even if you want to be big someday, remember that you never need to act like a big boring company. Over ten years, it seemed like every time someone raved about how much he loved CD Baby, it was because of one of these little fun human touches.Location: 457
  • if your internal processes are always designed to handle twice your existing load, it sends an attractive “come on in, we’ve got plenty of room” message.Location: 494
  • But I never again promised a customer that I could do something that was beyond my full control.Location: 579
  • Ten minutes later, a new question. Same process: Gather everybody around. Answer the question and explain the philosophy. Make sure everyone understands the thought process. Ask one person to write it in the manual. Let everybody know they can decide this without me next time. After two months of this, there were no more questions.Location: 626
  • To be a true business owner, make it so that you could leave for a year, and when you came back, your business would be doing better than when you left.Location: 642
  • He said, “I know. Every album to every company every week no matter what. But I’ve been swamped. I just couldn’t.” I flew up to Portland and let him go. I’ve never fired anyone so fast, but this was extreme. Our company’s reputation was permanently damaged.Location: 676
  • He said, “Did you know that they’re giving all of the profits of the company back to themselves?” Oops. When I canceled the profit-sharing program, I became a very unpopular guy. In our weekly company meetings, the general message from the employees was, “We need to get Derek out of here, so he stops telling us what to do. We don’t need to answer to him! He needs to answer to us!” Then I realized that there’s such a thing as over-delegation. I had empowered my employees so much that I gave them all the power. After a complete communication breakdown, it was eighty-five people (my employees) against one (me). I became the scapegoat for all of their dissatisfaction.Location: 690